Global ad spending will grow 3.8% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013, reaching US$525 billion by the end of next year, according to ZenithOptimedia’s latest advertising forecasts.
ZenithOptimedia, a Publicis Groupe-owned media agency network, reports that growth will be led by developing markets, which are forecast to grow by 8% on average in 2013. Central and Eastern Europe are expected to grow 7.4% in 2013, Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) by 8.2% and Latin America by 10.1%. Meanwhile, North America is expected to experience solid 3.6% growth in 2013.
For 2012, growth in the North American market was upgraded to 4.2%, from the 3.6% predicted in June. According to ZenithOptimedia, North America has been boosted this year by the strong performance of the Olympics in the U.S., where ratings were 30% higher than expected. Political advertising in the run-up to the November U.S. elections has also been much stronger than forecast.
Digital media – particularly internet advertising – are supplying most of the growth in spend by media. Internet advertising is expected to grow by 15.1% in 2013, reaching $102 billion, while traditional media will grow by 2.3%. Display is the fastest-growing internet sub-category, with 20% annual growth, thanks to the rapid rise of social media and online video advertising.
Overall, ZenithOptimedia predicts internet advertising will increase its share of the ad market from 17.8% in 2012 to 21.4% in 2014, reaching $116.8 billion. Television still has the largest share of the global ad market, remaining at roughly 40% until 2014, when it is forecast to reach $220 billion.
Internet advertising has risen primarily at the expense of print, according to the report. Between 2001 and 2011, the internet’s share of global advertising rose by 14%, while newspapers’ share fell 12% and magazines’ share fell by 5%.
Newspapers’ share of the overall ad market is expected to drop from 18.9% ($93.8 billion) in 2012 to 16.8% ($92 billion) in 2014. However, the report notes that these figures include only advertising in newspapers’ print editions, not their websites, tablet editions or mobile apps, which are picked up in the Internet category.
The U.S. looks set to remain the largest ad market in the world with $174 billion in ad spending forecast for 2014, followed by Japan ($53 billion) and China ($44 billion). In 2014, Canada is expected to drop from the ninth largest ad market to the tenth, with $12.4 billion in predicted ad spend. Russia is forecast to grab the number nine spot with $12.6 billion.