Cossette committee to review offer: analyst expects $6 per share ceiling
July 21, 2009 | Jeromy Lloyd | Comments
Cossette’s board of directors has struck a committee to review the surprise acquisition offer from former Cossette president and vice-chair Francois Duffar, an offer financial analysts say may be a little low, but not by much.
The bid was made Monday morning by Cosmos Capital, a group led by Duffar along with former Cossette vice-president Georges Morin, long-time BCE head Jean Monty, president of Libermont Inc. and Daniel Bernard, president of Provestis and current chairman of Kingfisher PLC. It is a “non-solicited and non-binding” offer for the agency network’s outstanding subordinate shares.
The special committee is chaired by Jean Lavigueur, chief financial officer of Coveo Solutions. Other members include Robert Beauregard, a former executive at JWT, Raymond Boucher, former board chairman of Société des alcools du Québec and CEO of BBDO Montréal, and Paule Gauthier, senior partner at Stein Monast where she specializes in corporate and commercial law. All are Cossette board members.
According to a statement from Cossette issued late yesterday, in addition to the Cosmos proposal, the committee will “review the various strategic options available to the company. The committee may actively solicit and consider proposals from third parties relating to the acquisition of the company.”
Cosmos’ offer of $4.95 per share represented a 52% premium on the stock’s $3.25 closing price on Friday. News of the offer subsequently drove that price up. At press time today, it had been trading as high at $5.10. That’s not as high as the $6.74 it saw last September, and is well below the $12 and $13 highs it enjoyed as recently late 2007.
Some industry experts observed yesterday the offer of $4.95 may be low, but analysts who spoke to Marketing said the $4.95 offer was not unfair given the current economic conditions, but could go a little higher.
Adam Shine, a communications and media analyst at National Bank Financial who has covered the company since 1999, said an offer of $5 to $6 per share would be “more than reasonable” given the company’s performance.
“Whether Cosmos or any of Cossette’s competitors are willing to pay something materially higher within this range remains to be seen and shouldn’t be assumed,” Shine said. “We’d be truly surprised to see Cossette shares get an offer above $6, let alone trade above the aforementioned range anytime in the near future.”
Shine’s recent bulletin on the stock called the $4.95 price “attractive” to the company’s “long-suffering shareholders” as it represents a five-times multiple of the company’s projected 2010 earnings.
However, another analyst speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the price could go as high as $7 or $8, and that Cossette could perceive the current offer as an insult.
The surprise move by Francois Duffar to acquire Cossette had lots of people talking and asking questions about the story behind the story. Jeromy Lloyd explored some of those questions on Marketing’s blog.




